Morning could start a bird flu pandemic

Avian influenza is a disease, by a certain kind of birds (bird)-flu virus, the so-called H5N1 virus. Birds in China in 1997 and since that time as 125 people in Cambodia, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Thailand discovered kill this virus 64 of them infected. It is through infected migratory birds (including wild ducks and geese) poultry (chickens, ducks and turkeys) and then to the people.

Since 1997, and in particular since early 2004 about 150 million birds died of the disease or killed to prevent further spread. However, has spread relentlessly this highly contagious and deadly virus in China, Thailand, Cambodia, Viet Nam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Laos, Russia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkey, Romania, England, Croatia, Macedonia and other countries. This continued geographical expansion of the virus is of great importance in the world. It is feared that spread it on all continents, including the Western Hemisphere still - and it is without a doubt.

Different types of viruses infect only one or a limited number of species, specifically for that particular virus type. The bird flu virus, but infected has a large number of birds and animals, including ducks, chickens, turkeys, Tree Sparrow, peregrine falcons, great Black-headed gulls, Brown top gulls, grey heron, Canada goose, bar top geese, small Heron, pigs, clouded leopards, white Tigers, mice, cats, crows and magpies, Pheasants, peacocks, blue Eagles, rare turtle doves, swans, terns, and others. This is another sign of the virulence or destructiveness of the virus.

Researchers, historians, and infectious diseases experts have found that influenza pandemics (worldwide epidemics) about once every 30 years. The deadly epidemic took in 1918-19, killing more than 100 million people around the world occurred in less than two years. Two other less severe pandemics took place in 1957, when about two million people died, and 1968, when about one million people have died. As we have already three pandemics in less than 100 years, we are "too late" to the other.

And so this disease-causing virus to infect more and more species in more and more countries. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that one of the deadliest viruses ever known. Furthermore, established and recently after 10 years of working, researchers that deadly 1918-19 pandemic influenza virus as for the viruses it make the H5N1 bird flu virus is much more genetically similar to less severe pandemics of 1957-58 and 1968-69.



Summary of previously important points: the bird flu virus is a very high strain of avian influenza H5N1 called killed has millions of birds; (2) the virus is continuously spreading around the world; (3) the virus infected the has many species, unusually for most viruses; (4) the virus seems to be that-the most deadly virus ever known, the pandemic of 1918-19; (5) the virus has shown more deadly much in laboratory experiments as regular influenza viruses that; (and 6) the virus is known that at least 125 have infected people killed 64 of them have a mortality rate of around 50 percent.

Continue to kill people, but at a slow pace the virus - it is not yet acquired the ability to easily transferable between people; Infected people are mainly of sick birds. Because no natural immunity against the H5N1 virus, today people lives as soon as it is easily transmitted between people a pandemic or global epidemic occur. The central question is, if it will be enough genetic material with the usual seasonal human influenza viruses, rather like a human influenza virus to be - to Exchange and thus easily transmissible between people?

Many people believe that the virus all over the world to spread until it is in the most or all countries remains - before it "human" (are easily transmitted between people). And this may be the case. Assume that the pandemic of 1918-19 in Kansas (of all places) has begun. It is quite possible that the next start pandemic than anywhere else in Asia could - although according to the most expert will, in fact, begin it. It can be in a country that still run host for the virus.

However, it is certainly not necessary for the virus until March all around the world from a pandemic could begin. The fact that has spread the virus more than 15 countries and many different species of birds and animal species, allows for the production of the dreaded human contamination, to mix with a human influenza virus. There is no known reason why this is not tomorrow. It is true, though, that increases the likelihood of the switch time has likely happened their morning near 0 (zero).

On the other hand is the possibility that the crossover can happen at any time the fact that deadly human beings changed the virus already at least since 1997 and as a matter of record, not on a form. At least some scientists believe that the virus can not and is not to a lethal form, perhaps ever switch.

And therefore we use these two very different possibilities are - at any time, and as soon as tomorrow, the virus can mutate into a lethal form easily transmissible between people - whether it be never able to change to a form. It seems much more evidence of the former and, probably, that is, why the vast majority of scientists and Governments are scrambling to prepare for the worst.

This situation is analogous to life on the Gulf Coast during the beginning of the hurricane season. People have seen it before, but most of the time, not too severe storms and people can come without too much effort. There are rarely heavy storms, the devastating. One day, a hurricane, and it seems that seems even a category IV or v by the time the country. This is however not certain – no one can say with certainty, and no one knows when exactly it will be held. So what should the residents? What should have been doing the residents before Hurricane Katrina?

The coming avian flu pandemic may be mild and it could not, for many years. On the other hand, could the serious and it start tomorrow. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has said, "while the seriousness of the next pandemic is unpredictable, modeling studies suggest that their impact in the United States could be seriously." We must also remember that the pandemic at all times, even before the virus of methodically all brands the world could come. No matter how advanced science has become, we still cannot predict when the switch; take place it is currently recognized - and this does not mean, it comes later, in a predictable way. As Miguel de Cervantes warned, "you were warned, prepared."

Bradford Frank, m.d., žVergeleken, MBA Frank group p.o. box 138, NY-Lakewood type 14, 750-http: / / Www.AvoidBirdFlu.com